Retailers can reduce the number of incidents where they run out of certain products—known as stockouts—by telling shoppers supply is low, 一种有助于长期留住客户的策略, according to new research by 电子游戏软件 Assistant Professor of 业务 Analytics 德米特里•Mitrofanov.
Traditionally, retailers have been reluctant to communicate low product availability. 结果是, unfulfilled orders frustrate customers and damage customer relationships, as well as short- and long-term earnings from shoppers who otherwise might have remained loyal customers.
“We wanted to find out what happens if we are more transparent with customers in terms of which products are low in stock or which products have a higher probability of being unavailable,米特罗法诺夫说, 谁在INFORMS 2022年会议上介绍了这些发现. 该报告预定在该杂志上发表 管理科学.
The COVID-19 pandemic shone a spotlight on the global supply chain and the interconnectedness of products and shoppers around the world. 随着货物流动的放缓, 停滞不前, 或停止, buyers—particularly those making purchases online—experienced increasing frustration.
解决缺货问题的传统策略既昂贵又昂贵, 在全球生产普遍放缓的情况下, 很难找到. 而是向消费者提供额外的信息, Mitrofanov发现, offers an almost zero-cost solution with surprisingly positive results.
助理教授德米特里•Mitrofanov
米特罗法诺夫和电子游戏正规平台合著者本杰明·奈特说, 电子商务杂货Instacart的高级数据科学家, provided product availability information to a random sample of more than 840,000 Instacart customers and found that they were 25 percent less likely to purchase low availability items when told supply was low. Similarly, providing low product availability information resulted in a 5.每个客户的收入增加了3%.9 percent increase in order frequency over time, Mitrofanov说.
Online shoppers, Mitrofanov说, are particularly vulnerable to stockouts.
例如，假设它是8a.m. in the morning and you go on the website of an online grocery retailer to order a fresh steak for your dinner and luckily enough you find that steak is listed as an item available on the website and place a delivery order in a few clicks. This way you build an expectation that the item will arrive in a few hours right by the time you are planning to have dinner. 然而, 在预定的交货时间之前, the stock of steaks has run out and thus they are not delivered to you by dinner, 毁了你的夜晚. 与此形成鲜明对比的是, customers’ experience in a brick-and-mortar setting could be less dramatic because a customer could just as quickly realize that steaks are out of stock after not seeing them on the shelf and find a good replacement after looking around or asking a store manager for help.”
结果是, online retailers face the disruption of what was once a valued customer relationship, 他补充说.
“如果有东西没有交付, then customers can get very upset and that results in significantly lower customer lifetime value and that impacts revenue,米特罗法诺夫说.
有趣的是, psychology research has shown that a sense of a shortage of a good might in fact influence a customer to purchase this item and possibly in larger quantities because of “scarcity” or “herding” effects, outcomes online retailers can avoid by sharing information on low availability products, Mitrofanov说. 因此, 原则上, a reluctance to share information could potentially exacerbate the stockout problem for the retailer and customers.
话虽如此, Instacart customers’ shopping behavior was not impacted much by “scarcity” or “herding” effects when they received low product availability warnings. 而不是, 顾客们把注意力转向了库存充足的商品, which indicates that customers’ preference for the reliable service was the driving force, Mitrofanov说.
“在进行了这个实地试验之后, we are able to better understand the customer response to sharing this important information,米特罗法诺夫说. “We see that the outcome of sharing low availability information with customers not only reduces the number of stockouts, as people tend to shift from low stock items to high stock items, but also improves the customers’ sentiment when stockouts do occur,他说. “更确切地说, even if customers decide to purchase low stock items after the warning and consequently experience a stockout they are less dissatisfied because of the reference effect —by sharing low item availability information we reset customer's expectations with respect to the probability that their order will be successfully fulfilled. It is very interesting that managing customers’ expectations and improving their decision making by sharing extra information is as important in online retail as making the right proactive operational decisions on the online platform.”
Even though the current study largely focuses on online retailers or online retail platforms, Mitrofanov说 brick-and-mortar retailers can benefit from the lessons from the study as well: “Many online marketplaces—including Instacart—fulfill orders through ‘warehouse’ stores, 因此，这个问题影响了一系列零售商,他说. “I think there is a lesson here for any retailer that consumers don’t like surprises, 特别失望, and thus managing their expectations and providing them with tools to make a better decision about what to purchase is a key.”
Ed Hayward |大学传播| 2023年1月